Daily Metals Mining Rundown and Peer Table - Free Edition for 28 Jan 2025 (intraday ASX)

Today’s metals price movements intraday ASX (since Friday close) include:

• Palladium down -3.6% to $955/oz Pd

• Silver down -1.6% to $30.08/oz Ag

• Platinum down -1.3% to $944/oz Pt

• Gold down -1.1% to $2,739/oz Au

• Copper down -1.2% to $4.24/lb Cu

Today’s metals mining peer group movers intraday ASX inlcude:

• Uranium producers’ peer group median share performance down -10.7% to median market cap/lb U3O8 resource of US$8.48/lb U3O8e ($290/oz AuEq)

• Uranium developers’ median down -10.0% to median market cap/lb of $0.85/lb U3O8e ($29/oz AuEq) and to median P/NAV of 0.4x (at our Reference uranium price of $65/lb)

• Uranium explorers’ median down -7.0% to median market cap/lb of $0.82/lb U3O8e ($28/oz AuEq)

• PGM producers’ median down -5.8% to median market cap/oz of $10.5/oz PdEq ($28/oz AuEq)

• Nickel producers’ median is down -4.8% to median market cap/lb of $0.15/lb Ni ($55/oz AuEq)

Metals mining company announcements incorporated into today’s Peer Table (resource updates, economic studies, changes in attributable project ownership) include:

• 27 Jan 2025 - Silver developer Discovery Silver (TSX:DSV) announced the transformational acquisition of the producing Porcupine mine complex in the Timmins gold camp from Newmont (NYSE:NEM). This deal is set to roughly double DSV’s gold-equivalent resource ounces to 31.7 Moz AuEq (from 15.3 Moz AuEq). And upon closing expected in H1/25, DSV will immediately graduate to our immediate gold producer peer group from its current silver developer peer group (NEM reported that Porcupine produced 67koz Au in most recent Q3/24). DSV reports they will pay US$425M for the gold mine ($200M cash on closing pending a cap raise, $75M in new DSV shares, with remaining $150M to be paid in cash over next 4 years). DSV’s CEO Tony Makuch has executed company-transforming deals like this before, and on a much bigger scale, after he led the bold move to take out Detour Lake for C$4.9B back in 2019 while at the helm of Kirkland Lake Gold, which turned out to be a home-run (not only because the gold price ripped afterwards, also because it led to Kirkland Lake’s merging with Agnico Eagle NYSE:AEM). Our Peer Table now assumes this DSV deal will close (with a footnote) and we preemptively increase DSV’s shares to 771 M sh (from Google Finance’s current 400M sh), and add Porcupine’s whopping 12.5 moz Au M&I and 3.9 Moz inferred resource to DSV’s holdings. Based on DSV’s pro-forma share count of 771M, its market cap trades today at US$665M (afer shares traded up +26.5% today), or at a market cap of US$21/oz AuEq resource, which is (still) a 25% discount to DSV’s (former) silver developer peer group median of $28.3/oz AuEq and a much bigger 80% discount to (its new) intermediate gold producer peer group median market cap of $102/oz AuEq. Today’s announcment included results for a PEA for Porcupine, yielding an NPV5 of US$1.2B from capex of $854M over 5 years from 2025-2030 at analyst consensus gold price of $2,150/oz. Our Peer Table now reports a (pro-forma) combined NPV of US$1.6B for both Porcupine and Cordero at our Reference metal prices of $22/oz Ag and $1,800/oz Au, resulting in a P/NAV (pro-forma market cap / combined NPV) of 0.41x, which is (still) an 18% discount to our silver developer peer group median 0.51x. And at our recent spot price deck ($31/oz Ag and $2,650/oz Au), DSV’s combined-pro-forma NPV rises sharply to US$5.4B and trades (pro-forma) at corresponding P/NAV of only 0.12x, resulting in an even steeper 48% discount to (DSV’s former) silver developer peer group median of 0.24x (at same recent spot prices).

• 27 Jan 2025 - Gold explorer TDG Gold Corp (TSXV:TDG) announced a strategic investment from silver and gold developer Skeena Resource (NYSE:SKE) as part of a non-brokered financing of up to C$14.5M. Funds will help TDG advance its flagship Greater Shasta-Newberry project ("Greater Shasta Project") in the Toodoggone District, in British Columbia, Canada. According to the announced deal terms, SKE also gets TDG’s non-core Sofia property, and will own 13% of TDG (and its 1.1 Moz AuEq gold and silver Shasta deposit) following the transaction.